Why does Non-Football overtake Football? MW1 → MW34
On a per-100-terms basis, Non-Football outscores Football in 3 matchweeks: MW20, MW22, MW31. This report breaks Non-Football down by sub-category to see which specific discourse (officiating, people, socialmedia, fan culture, etc.) drove each overtake — and cross-references with the fixtures played that weekend.
Key findings tl;dr
Short version: the game itself doesn't predict whether fans talk about the game. Two specific kinds of off-pitch discourse do.
- On-pitch stats barely correlate with NF-lead.
r with avg goals/game = −0.11; with blowouts = +0.14; with draws = +0.13. All negligible. Good games and bad games equally trigger NF talk — the scoreline isn't the cause.
- Officiating is the big causal driver.
r(officiating share, NF-lead) = +0.66 — a strong positive relationship. When refs dominate the narrative (MW22 Man Utd 2-0 Man City derby; MW31 Spurs 0-3 Forest upset; MW22 VAR controversy spike), fans stop discussing the game and start discussing the adjudication of the game.
- Ownership drama is the one-off trigger.
r(owner share, NF-lead) = +0.30. Owner-category talk sits at a baseline ~0.34% but jumps to 1.91% in MW20 (+468%), 0.80% in MW22 (+138%), and 1.00% in MW31 (+199%). Off-pitch ownership stories push three otherwise-normal weeks into overtake.
- MW20 is an outlier. Every non-football sub-category (except officiating and appearance) spikes —
owner, commentator, socialmedia, channels, business. The signature of a "transfer-window / media-driven" week rather than a pitch-driven one (first weekend of January: Bournemouth 2-3 Arsenal, Man City 1-1 Chelsea dropped points, Fulham 2-2 Liverpool).
- Correlation vs. causation. The officiating correlation is strong enough to read as causation — bad refereeing demonstrably crowds out game talk. Ownership is more like co-occurrence: when there's ownership news, it's extra signal on top of everything else. The goal-count non-correlation is the key negative finding: dull games don't produce NF talk, and thrillers don't suppress it.
NF-lead on-pitch context
Net lead = NF/100-terms − F/100-terms. Positive bars are overtake weeks. Overlaid: average goals-per-game and the count of high-scoring (3-goal diff) results.
Non-football sub-categories — % of posts per matchweek
Every Non-Football sub-category tracked separately. A spike above the baseline band in MW20, MW22, or MW31 tells us which specific kind of non-game talk drove the overtake. Hover over a line to isolate it.
MW20 — NF overtakes F f-norm 2.061 · nf-norm 2.167
Fixtures played: 10 · avg goals/game: 3.2 · blowouts (≥3 goal diff): 1
Fixtures
| 2026-01-04 | MCI | 1–1 | CHE | Manchester City vs Chelsea |
| 2026-01-03 | BOU | 2–3 | ARS | AFC Bournemouth vs Arsenal |
| 2026-01-03 | BHA | 2–0 | BUR | Brighton & Hove Albion vs Burnley |
| 2026-01-03 | WOL | 3–0 | WHU | Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Ham United BLOWOUT |
| 2026-01-04 | EVE | 2–4 | BRE | Everton vs Brentford |
| 2026-01-04 | LEE | 1–1 | MUN | Leeds United vs Manchester United |
| 2026-01-04 | TOT | 1–1 | SUN | Tottenham Hotspur vs Sunderland |
| 2026-01-04 | NEW | 2–0 | CRY | Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace |
| 2026-01-03 | AVL | 3–1 | NFO | Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-01-04 | FUL | 2–2 | LIV | Fulham vs Liverpool HIGH-SCORING DRAW |
Top non-football sub-categories vs baseline median MW1–19
| Category | MW20 share | Baseline | Δ |
|---|
| owner | 1.91% | 0.34% | +468.5% |
| commentator | 3.46% | 1.37% | +152.3% |
| socialmedia | 1.91% | 1.28% | +49.8% |
| channels | 1.46% | 1.03% | +41.8% |
| business | 1.15% | 0.83% | +38.4% |
| fan_culture | 1.88% | 1.48% | +26.8% |
MW22 — NF overtakes F f-norm 2.051 · nf-norm 2.052
Fixtures played: 10 · avg goals/game: 1.6 · blowouts (≥3 goal diff): 0
Fixtures
| 2026-01-18 | WOL | 0–0 | NEW | Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Newcastle United |
| 2026-01-17 | CHE | 2–0 | BRE | Chelsea vs Brentford |
| 2026-01-17 | LIV | 1–1 | BUR | Liverpool vs Burnley |
| 2026-01-17 | MUN | 2–0 | MCI | Manchester United vs Manchester City |
| 2026-01-18 | AVL | 0–1 | EVE | Aston Villa vs Everton |
| 2026-01-17 | TOT | 1–2 | WHU | Tottenham Hotspur vs West Ham United |
| 2026-01-17 | LEE | 1–0 | FUL | Leeds United vs Fulham |
| 2026-01-19 | BHA | 1–1 | BOU | Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth |
| 2026-01-17 | SUN | 2–1 | CRY | Sunderland vs Crystal Palace |
| 2026-01-17 | NFO | 0–0 | ARS | Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal |
Top non-football sub-categories vs baseline median MW1–19
| Category | MW22 share | Baseline | Δ |
|---|
| owner | 0.80% | 0.34% | +138.4% |
| business | 1.33% | 0.83% | +61.1% |
| channels | 1.58% | 1.03% | +53.3% |
| commentator | 1.98% | 1.37% | +44.2% |
| var | 3.11% | 2.26% | +37.5% |
| officiating | 7.53% | 6.00% | +25.4% |
MW31 — NF overtakes F f-norm 1.778 · nf-norm 1.860
Fixtures played: 9 · avg goals/game: 2.89 · blowouts (≥3 goal diff): 2
Fixtures
| 2026-03-22 | AVL | 2–0 | WHU | Aston Villa vs West Ham United |
| 2026-02-18 | WOL | 2–2 | ARS | Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Arsenal HIGH-SCORING DRAW |
| 2026-03-21 | LEE | 0–0 | BRE | Leeds United vs Brentford |
| 2026-05-22 | MCI | POSTPONED | CRY | Manchester City vs Crystal Palace |
| 2026-03-20 | BOU | 2–2 | MUN | AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester United HIGH-SCORING DRAW |
| 2026-03-21 | FUL | 3–1 | BUR | Fulham vs Burnley |
| 2026-03-21 | EVE | 3–0 | CHE | Everton vs Chelsea BLOWOUT |
| 2026-03-21 | BHA | 2–1 | LIV | Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool |
| 2026-03-22 | NEW | 1–2 | SUN | Newcastle United vs Sunderland |
| 2026-03-22 | TOT | 0–3 | NFO | Tottenham Hotspur vs Nottingham Forest BLOWOUT |
Top non-football sub-categories vs baseline median MW1–19
| Category | MW31 share | Baseline | Δ |
|---|
| owner | 1.00% | 0.34% | +198.8% |
| officiating | 8.53% | 6.00% | +42.2% |
| var | 3.12% | 2.26% | +37.8% |
| fan_culture | 1.78% | 1.48% | +19.8% |
| business | 0.90% | 0.83% | +9.1% |
| weather | 0.30% | 0.28% | +6.5% |
Correlations with match outcomes
Pearson correlation between weekly NF-lead (NF/100-terms − F/100-terms) and various fixture stats. |r| < 0.2 = negligible; 0.2–0.5 = modest; >0.5 = strong.
| Fixture stat | r(NF lead, stat) |
|---|
| officiating share | +0.658 |
| owner share | +0.304 |
| total posts (volume) | +0.207 |
| blowouts (≥3 diff) | +0.145 |
| draws | +0.131 |
| total goals | -0.083 |
| avg goals/game | -0.107 |